Today had plenty of action in connection to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Two of the leaders of the Proud Boys, one of the main groups behind planning and participating in the attack, received long prison sentences. Both were convicted of seditious conspiracy. One received 17 years, while the other received 15 years. Several others are set to get sentenced, as well (while another is on the lamb).
Meanwhile, Trump put in a plea of not guilty in the case in Georgia, in which he and 18 others are charged with trying to overturn the election there.
As I’ve said since the attack in 2021, I believe Jan. 6 likely represents the beginning of the end of our republic. I still haven’t changed my mind.
Cases are proceeding, and that’s good. We’ve had several elections in which politicians aligned with the Trump voter fraud story have lost.
But for the most part, self-identified Republicans have yet to acknowledge the legitimacy of the 2020 election and are unwilling to accept the severity of Jan. 6. They certainly aren’t willing to see Trump pay any price for his actions leading up to that day and for his inaction in the face of the attack.
Some polls show that support for Trump is slipping, even among Republicans, but overall, his popularity in the GOP remains strong. Right now he’s a shoo-in for the nomination.
That doesn’t mean his chances are good in the general election. A Politico/Ipsos poll found that just over half of Americans think Trump is guilty of the various Jan. 6 crimes he’s charged with. Most importantly, among independents.
But this result is well within the margin of error for the poll.
We have narrowly divided politics - especially in the swing states of the last couple of election cycles - and keeping a man who is dead set on undermining our democratic republican institutions out of the White House will likely depend on those independent voters.
Better, though, would be if Republicans come around. But that still seems unlikely. It hasn’t happened among Trump’s cult-like base, nor among leaders of the party. At the recent Republican presidential debate (which Trump didn’t attend), six out the eight candidates said they’d still support Trump if he was convicted of a felony.
Even Pence raised his hand after his own life was threatened by Trump’s inaction and tweets on Jan. 6
Pence is an utterly bizarre case. He did the right thing on Jan. 6. But has, since then, seemed to think he can thread a needle between all of the people who more-or-less hate him - from Trump supporters to Democrats. Why couldn’t he just take a brave stand and oppose all of Jan. 6 and its legacy? I don’t get it.
Other Republicans have been much better. Honestly, I can’t believe how long and steadfastly Georgia Republicans have been willing to stand up against the election claims Trump has made, including Secretary of State Brad Raffesperger and Gov. Brian Kemp. All of the Republicans who gave evidence to the Jan. 6 special committee deserve a shoutout, too.
Looking again at the general election, it’s likely Trump will get the Republican nomination. What happens in the election itself is impossible to call. But without Republicans coming around to a rejection of violence and lies about our elections - despite the volumes of evidence from many different sources - as opposed to the other single source of truth in Trump - our politics will be broken for a long time to come, regardless of any electoral outcomes.
For a recap of the evidence I’m talking about, the Associated Press did a fantastic job recently. Enjoy.