This past Saturday was the third anniversary of the attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters seeking to block the finalization of the 2020 election. It marks the only time in U.S. history that we did not have a peaceful transfer of power. It was only the second time our Capitol was successfully attacked. (The British invaded and burned it in 1814.)
This is not a post I wanted to write because my perspective on what January 6th means for our country is so bleak and the prospects of Trump being rewarded for it are so great.
As I've written before, I believe January 6th could potentially mark the beginning of the end of the republic. How so? Two ways. One, by making mass political violence an accepted part of our political system, and two, by undermining the very notion of commonly held truth.
On the first, if many Republicans continue to dismiss and deny the importance of the attack on the Capitol, then we are doomed to repeat it or something very like it. Once we, as a society, decide that political violence on that scale is acceptable, it only opens the door to more. This is not even about policy. Honestly, I think the republic could survive the impact of any policies Trump might come up with. Instead, it's about how we will conduct politics in the United States. And that could be irreparably damaged.
On the second, I have in the past described the Trump movement as a cult of personality. I mean something very specific by that. It means that truth is only what the cult leader says it is. Nothing else matters. This is where we stand today. Despite all of us seeing what we saw with our own eyes on January 6th, many Republicans hold alternative - and false - views of reality. We also saw a complete breakdown in faith in the courts to determine facts. Trump had his chance - 60 times - to convince judges that he had solid evidence of problems with the elections and failed. But none of that matters to the true believers - some of whom seem to sincerely see Trump as an agent of God.
Of course, no cult leader can do it all on his own. There is a conservative media sphere that continues to repeat debunked stories about January 6th for audience, profit, and fun. (Probably all three.) And we've had a complete moral failure of Republican leadership. It started out okay, but then completely knuckled under to the Trump cult. The solution to combatting this movement and fixing our system of shared truth can only come from Republicans. And there's very little hope on that front.
We might yet achieve electoral victory, sure. Biden might win in November. But it will be against all odds, if recent polling trends continue. The Democrats have chosen to stick with an incredibly weak incumbent - not that there were any particularly strong alternatives. And it's too late to choose someone new, anyway. (Unless forced to do so by a "health issue".) What's disturbing at this point is that there appears to be this weird lack of urgency on the part of the Biden campaign. Maybe here in the new year, we'll see some action.
Anyhow, it's all just so bleak. So bleak, in fact, that I need to carve out some time to look at best-case scenarios. I hope to get to that soon, but with my track record of writing, who knows when I'll get to it!
In the meantime, we must hope that the Trump spell will break. We cannot live in a society in which one person can dictate the very truth that an entire half of our political system accepts and that normalizes political violence.
Time for some other random thoughts about January 6th.
Something I don't think gets talked about nearly enough is the threat of violence that Republicans who cross Trump must feel. That threat is real, and we should talk about it more.
Just as a reminder, as I've written before, my judgment of Trump regarding January 6th is not based on what he did that day. It's based on what did not do. He did not act as the Capitol was under attack. I can only see two explanations for this - either he was paralyzed, or he liked what he saw and wanted to see how it would shake out. Either explanation means he should never be president again.
Also, there's still debate as to what to call January 6th. Here is a great "forth" that January 6th was an insurrection and a "back" that it wasn't (along with a couple more backs and forths) from two scholars at Reason. This exchange helped clarify things for me.
For my part, it was not a coup. The military did not attempt a takeover. By my understanding and definition, coups require the military.
It was not a rebellion. The Trump supporters did not want to establish a new country. They wanted to win an election and take over this one.
It most certainly was an attack - by which I mean pre-planned. There were people that day who had every intention of ramping up the violence. I suppose we could add that it then became a riot as the day went on. But a riot for me is more diffuse, leading to widespread and random violence. This violence very much had a focused purpose. Riot is an acceptable but poor substitute to attack.
But most importantly, I am certain it was an insurrection. Refer to the posts I linked to above.
This matters because it is at the heart of the state cases that are on their way to U.S. Supreme Court. I don't know whether the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump from office. We'll hear from the Supreme Court on that.
I do know this, though: Politically and socially, whatever the Supreme Court decides won't make a difference. This simmering political battle that we have is rooted in Trump's cult of personality and won't be dispersed by the Supreme Court.
One final thought - You might notice that I'm publishing this after the third anniversary. That's because, over the weekend, I both had to and chose to just live my life. And really that's what we should be able to do. We should be able to live our lives free of politics as much as possible. Politics should not constantly be existential and all-consuming. Treating politics that way benefits some people, but not the vast majority of us. As a society, we're being sucked along and suckered by these players. In a more sane society, we would be able to all just calm the f*ck down.
On a final, separate note, I want to point out that January 6th is also the anniversary of FDR's Four Freedoms speech. That's a positive vision of politics that I can rally behind.